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EconomistsTalkArt.org

Research-based policy analysis and commentary

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January 2018

TWO INFORMATION AGGREGATION MECHANISMS FOR PREDICTING THE OPENING WEEKEND BOX OFFICE REVENUES OF FILMS

By David Court, Benjamin Gillen, Jordi McKenzie and Charles R. Plott

Many entertainment and, more generally, cultural products are characterised by significant levels of uncertainty regarding their ultimate appeal to consumers. This is perhaps no place better observed than in the theatrical film industry, where the famous ‘nobody knows anything’ quote of William Goldman has often been used to support this idea. We present two aggregation mechanisms to predict the opening weekend box office success of films and show they are able to provide useful predictions of box office revenues. Continue reading “TWO INFORMATION AGGREGATION MECHANISMS FOR PREDICTING THE OPENING WEEKEND BOX OFFICE REVENUES OF FILMS”

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ARE THEY ALL THE SAME? A CASE STUDY OF THREE AUSTRALIAN INDIGENOUS ARTISTS

By Lisa Farrell, Jane M. Fry and Tim R.L. Fry

Many studies of art auctions assume that a single statistical model using observed characteristics relating to the artwork and the auction can explain the observed variation in the sample of all artworks and artists. We show that such “pooling” is not always appropriate and may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Continue reading “ARE THEY ALL THE SAME? A CASE STUDY OF THREE AUSTRALIAN INDIGENOUS ARTISTS”

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